AOV and repeat purchase optimizer
What if the average basket went up five dollars? What if ten percent more customers came back? Move both levers against your own numbers and watch which one carries the result.
First-time buyers in a typical month.
Net revenue divided by orders.
Share of customers who place a second order.
How many further orders a returning customer places on average.
Move the two levers
Bundles, free-shipping thresholds, better product mix.
Post-purchase flows, replenishment timing, win-back campaigns.
Enter your customer count, AOV and repeat rate to model the two levers.
By the Numbers reports AOV and repeat purchase rate per cohort, so you see a change land instead of guessing. See the customer reports
Which lever is yours
The two bars are the point of this tool. Most teams argue about AOV and retention in the abstract, then pick whichever one the loudest person prefers. Priced against your own customer count, one of them is usually worth several times the other, and the argument resolves itself.
If order value is your lever, the fastest wins are in basket composition rather than price: product placements that lift AOV and analyzing AOV by order number both start from data you already have. If retention is your lever, the second order is the one that matters. Our email flows for repeat purchase guide covers the sequences that produce it.
Whichever you pick, convert the projection into profit before committing to it. The margin calculator shows how much of the extra revenue survives, and the LTV calculator shows what a sustained repeat-rate gain does to what each customer is worth.
Modeling questions, answered
Which lever is worth more, AOV or repeat rate?
It depends on your starting point, which is why this models both against your own numbers. Stores with high traffic and low repeat rates get more from retention work. Stores with a loyal base and a low basket get more from order value work. The bars tell you which one you are.
How do I raise AOV without discounting?
Bundles, free-shipping thresholds set just above your current AOV, and better product recommendations on the cart page. Each works by changing basket composition rather than price, so the gain lands in margin rather than being handed back at checkout.
How quickly does a repeat rate change show up?
Slower than an AOV change, because the second order happens on the customer's schedule, not yours. Expect to see it in cohort data one or two purchase cycles out, which is why retention work needs cohort reporting to be judged fairly.
Is this a forecast?
No. It is a sizing exercise: the same customer count behaving slightly differently. It assumes acquisition stays flat and the improvement holds, which is why the output is best used to rank two pieces of work rather than to set a revenue target.
Modeling a lift is easy. Proving one landed is the hard part.
By the Numbers tracks AOV and repeat purchase rate per cohort, so you can see whether last quarter's work moved them.
60-second install · 14-day free trial · No credit card required